Talk:Profitability/@comment-4192477-20110723212956/@comment-4102115-20110726092123

OK, looking at your spreadsheet, your maths is real good. I just do not understand the issue with the 14:1 vs 1/14th conundrum.

I get:

Median = 14

Mode = 14

And the all-important number, I get:

Median = 13.580401 (which when rounded to 3 decimal places is exactly the same as your value rounded to 3 decimal places: 13.580 or 7.36%

Since the original estimation of 7.14-7.15%, Ezcry, ParadijEijland, and others have been calculating higher values around with Ezcry quoting 7.236%, so it is no surprise the mathematical value is higher than the old estimated value. Interestingly your simulation gives 7.236% also, exactly the same as Ezcry's long-term calculation.

So why do those values differ from the theoretical value? I've not looked at your simulation code, and I have no confirmation that the formulae is correct or that randomInt(a,b) returns an integer x: a <= x < b

Out of curiosity, I ran the numbers for:

randomInt(a,b) returns an integer x: a <= x <= b

instead, and I got 13.7705 or 7.262% - which is much closer to the current real-life estimations...