Talk:Easter Bunny King/@comment-4102115-20120418150606/@comment-4102115-20120418162839

OK, so:

Probability of getting 2 Ruby Eggs in 10 zaps is: 7.46%

Probability of getting 3 Ruby Eggs in 10 zaps is: 1.05%

Probability of getting 4 Ruby Eggs in 10 zaps is 0.096%

The Probability of getting at least 2 Ruby Eggs in 10 zaps is 8.52% to 2 decimal places.

Probability of getting 1 Ruby Egg in 10 zaps is: 31.51%

Probability of getting 0 Ruby Eggs in 10 zaps is 59.87%

The Probability of getting less than 2 Ruby Eggs in 10 zaps is 91.38%

So, to get 750 Ruby's with at least 2 Ruby's per 10 zaps, it will take 4355 attempts, with 371 times saving the game, 186 times changing the system time forwards 1 hour, and 3984 times of restoring the game.

(My initial estimate before doing all the Binomial Probability calculations of 5000 restores and 360 saves was not far off, I slightly overestimated the number of times you would get 3 or more Ruby's in those 4355 attempts. 3 Rubys only 45 times and 4 Rubys only 4 times. For the average player doing 200 x 10zap cycles over 10 days, it would have been the extremely rare and lucky person to ever get 4 Rubys! Basically a 20% chance that any individual would have ever received 4 Rubys in one 10zap run over the whole event. Or 1 out of every 5 players.

Painful to complete with this method? I'd say so. But possible.

My head hurts now, but you could further use Binomial Probability and Combinations and Permutations to work out how to best optimise it to get all the right number of the right eggs with the fewest cycles and restores...

If the event had not already passed, and if anyone cared...